On July 1, 2007, the third phase of the National Vehicle Pollutant Emission Standard (hereinafter referred to as "State III") was formally implemented. In response to the country's requirement to implement the "National III" standard, the production companies were implemented on January 1, 2007 (heavy vehicles) and July 1, 2007 (light vehicles), depending on the models; the cards were January 2008 respectively. On the 1st (heavy vehicles) and July 1st, 2008 (light vehicles). This means that from January 1 next year, heavy trucks that do not meet China III emission standards will not be available for sale.
UnionPay analysis:
State III, the third phase of national motor vehicle emission standards. For heavy-duty vehicles, it is precisely defined as that the exhaust emissions of heavy-duty vehicles reach the “Limits and Measurement Methods for Exhaust Pollutants for Compression Ignition, Gaseous Fuel Ignition Engines and Vehicles (Class III, IV, V)†The third stage emission control requirements in (GB17691-2005). Specifically, the concentration of harmful gases such as CO (carbon monoxide), HC+NOx (hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides), PM (particles, soot), etc. in vehicle exhaust that meet the National III emission standards is higher than that of the national II emission standard. Vehicles are 30%-50% lower. This green new policy will undoubtedly make many heavy-duty truck manufacturers and sales companies face a "test of life and death." Many heavy truck companies are actively "preparing for war."
First, in order to meet the standards, heavy truck manufacturers need to break through three bottlenecks
Heavy truck companies must overcome this problem and must solve three bottlenecks, namely, the level of engine technology, after-sales service, and the suitability of diesel oil.
In terms of engine technology, the implementation of "State III" means to change from a mechanical engine to an electronic engine. The key is the upgrading of the engine's fuel injection system. According to current international prevailing practice, electronically controlled high pressure common rail technology is used. This will lead to increased costs and competition for resources by domestic manufacturers.
In addition, there is a problem of oil matching. Due to the current China's refining capacity, the supply of diesel in line with the national III standard is not sufficient, and it cannot be fully supplied in the short term. However, the use of the fuel of the “State III†vehicle that does not meet the requirements for a long time may damage the vehicle performance and affect the service life of the engine. . Li Wanli, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission’s Industrial Policy Department, said that according to the information provided by the petrochemical companies, the national III standard must be implemented in stages, gradually expanding according to the central city, and gradually reaching the national implementation.
Finally, the "State III" vehicle uses an electronic engine. Once it encounters a complex fault or internal failure of the engine's electronic control system, it must be detected and repaired by the service station using a professional fault diagnostic apparatus. It must not be demolished. Since the key technology of the "National III" engine comes from abroad, it must go through a learning process after introduction, and it will also bring difficulties to the popularization of service technology.
Second, heavy truck price increase is a foregone conclusion, or will affect the sales of the vehicle
The sales manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. stated that with the full implementation of the heavy-duty motor vehicle III standard, if it were replaced with a national III engine, the average price of each vehicle would increase by 80,000 yuan, for example, the previous sale of 140,000 yuan. 153, it is now selling more than 210,000 yuan. In terms of engine technology, the implementation of State III means that the heavy truck must be transformed from a mechanical engine to an electronic engine. The key issue is the upgrading of the engine fuel injection system. According to the current international practice, the use of electronically controlled high pressure common rail technology . Because of its own supporting problems, Dongfeng has to adopt the way of importing III standard engines. This has also led to a cost increase of about 80,000 yuan for the cost of its model. Due to the price difference, Dongfeng Guo III car sales have been sluggish.
The manager of the marketing department of Shaanxi Heavy-duty Truck Co., Ltd. stated that the company's current standard III heavy duty truck products supplied to Beijing and Guangzhou are about 25,000 yuan more expensive than the same type II national standard products. After the national III standard is implemented nationwide, the heavy truck product price must rise nationwide. Guo Huanan, director of the Propaganda Department of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, also believes that the implementation of the National III Standard will make the price of heavy trucks generally increase by around RMB 20,000. According to their calculations, after the implementation of the State III standard in 2008, the nation’s heavy truck products will be raised by 10%-15%.
Zhao Jingguang, secretary of the Party Committee of Foton Motor, said that it is difficult for the heavy truck companies to absorb the increased production costs themselves, and most of them must offset the policy impact by increasing the price of the products. He is not worried that the company's product sales will decline sharply, because all heavy truck companies face the same problems, are standing on the same starting line.
From this point of view, the general price increase of heavy trucks in 2008 is a foregone conclusion.
Third, credit risk tips
In 2008, with the full implementation of State III standards, the industry chain of the entire heavy truck industry is facing challenges, including how to meet the standards of engines and gasoline; and how to increase the cost of 20% among vehicles, spare parts and consumers. . Next year, the heavy-duty truck industry will face the dual pressure of overall price increase and sales growth year-on-year, which may lead to overall cooling.
For vehicle manufacturers, the degree of competition in the industry will be further reduced. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of heavy trucks nationwide totaled 412,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.4%. The sales of the top 7 companies in the sales ranking accounted for 90.68% of the total market sales. The National III standard will further promote market concentration. From State II to Country III, the heavy trucks must be upgraded from the original mechanical control system to the computer control system. Most of the domestic high-quality engines and oil pumps needed for this system cannot be produced. They mainly rely on Bosch, Weichai, and Cummins. And other large supporting manufacturers supply. Judging from the current situation, the combined production capacity of these engine manufacturers cannot meet the market demand after implementing the National III standard across the country. Therefore, the companies that had previously had cooperation with them will first obtain market opportunities, such as Sinotruk. , Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck (Weichai is the parent company of Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck), Foton Motor (Fukuda has established a joint venture engine plant with Cummins), etc., while most other commercial vehicle companies may have to face the “no rice cooker†situation. . Enterprises with strong strengths and relying on mature technologies will coexist with capital and coexist, grow slowly in the industry, and stand out under the background of tight monetary policies, such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Chongqing Hongyan, Beiqi Foton, etc. . China's heavy truck industry may enter the era of oligopolistic competition next year.
The changes in the competitive pattern of the entire downstream vehicle will inevitably lead to a change in the pattern of the engine industry. For some diesel engine manufacturers, if they are fortunate enough to be restructured and merged by large companies, they may unfortunately face delisting risks. Regardless of whether this year's self-produced engine of the entire automobile company or the supporting engine company increases the proportion of external supply, it can be seen as a reflection of the “State III†New Deal market, and the engine market concentration has also increased. Beginning next year, the market share of low-end engine manufacturers that have obviously failed to meet their emission standards will gradually disappear.
The situation of sales companies may be even more severe. According to the sales model of domestic commercial vehicles, auto sales companies are completely controlled by production companies and lack the right to speak. What can be confirmed now is that the prices of heavy trucks will be fully enhanced next year, but it is not known whether the manufacturers will provide a preferential policy to the sellers. Once the sales volume declines, it will affect the sales performance of the sellers, which will affect their repayment ability.
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