Many commercial vehicle companies have expressed some concerns while looking ahead to the 2008 market. The macroeconomic trend will make it difficult for the heavy-duty truck market to grow in 2007, and the bus market is more optimistic.
In 2007, the auto market ended in a fairly prosperous atmosphere. The entire auto industry achieved an increase of more than 20%, continuing the strong growth trend.
Compared with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles generally have a relatively small growth rate in recent years, especially in the heavy-duty truck industry, with a growth rate of approximately 60%. They have become the fastest growing segment of the automotive industry, far exceeding industry growth. The rate is higher than that of passenger vehicles. This situation was rarely seen before. The medium- and heavy-duty trucks have continued to grow more steadily; for passenger cars, large passenger buses and buses for road passenger transport are the bright spots for growth in 2007.
In 2008, there will be major changes in the factors affecting the commercial vehicle market. The country’s macro-control efforts will increase. Stable fiscal policies and tight monetary policies will be implemented, and the macroeconomic climate will change.
The construction of the Beijing Olympic Games is drawing to a close, and environmental protection bus passenger bidding is basically in place. At the same time, for commercial vehicles in 2008, it was a year when emissions regulations really played a role. In this way, the heavy-duty truck market will be difficult to maintain its ultra-high growth in 2007, while large and medium-sized passenger vehicles, especially road passenger cars and bus passenger vehicles, will benefit from overseas growth and will grow steadily. For light vehicles, the market demands upgrading and the demand itself will not increase. There are great changes.
The overall development of commercial vehicles is stable
Near the end of the lunar calendar, many companies convened the 2008 business conference to sum up the goals and actions of 2008 in the wake of the 2007 gains and losses. When looking at the 2008 market, heavy-duty truck companies have shown some concern for the 2008 market.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Chairman Ma Chunji at the business conference expects the heavy-duty truck market will continue to grow at a high rate in 2008, but the magnitude will not be as high as in 2007; SAIC's Vice President of Commercial Vehicles, Xiao Guopu, has been listed for the first time since SAIC Iveco Hongyan was listed. The business conference held that in 2008, macroeconomic climate change will not be small, monetary policy will be tight, investment will fall, raw materials will rise, and energy saving and emission reduction policies will force companies to adjust their product mix. In 2008, commercial vehicles will also face a major adjustment. .
The emissions regulations in 2008 were a year that had a real impact on commercial vehicle companies. From January 1, 2008, the new heavy trucks in China will officially implement the national III standard, and heavy trucks that do not meet the national III emission standard will not be available for sale. The state will also implement the national IV standard on January 1, 2010 and the implementation country V standard on January 1, 2012.
Most commercial vehicle companies have made preparations for the full implementation of the 2008 State III standard and have introduced advanced engines in full. FAW, Dongfeng, and CNHTC have taken the initiative by virtue of the integration of complete vehicles and engines, while the bus companies Yutong, Jinlong also uses its market advantages to set a benchmark for other companies in terms of product structure, advanced technology, and overseas markets. Bus companies should still have a market performance of no less than 2007 in 2008.
Overall, commercial vehicles will develop steadily in 2008. Except that the heavy truck market may not continue the boom in 2007, the passenger car market is more optimistic. As for medium and light vehicles, the mid-to-medium card market may be affected by heavy truck replacement factors and have a certain decline, but the demand for light trucks and light bus markets will not change much. Determined that the market trend is stable.
Heavy trucks will be hard to sustain
For the heavy truck industry, it is the largest affected by the macro economy. In 2007, on the basis of reversing the 2005 trough in 2006, explosive growth was achieved, but in 2008, it is difficult to achieve the same explosive growth as in 2007.
As a means of production, heavy trucks have a large correlation with the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society. In the long run, the factors that promote the growth of the medium- and heavy-duty truck industry still exist, mainly the demand for road freight, infrastructure construction and investment in real estate development. Under macro-control, the central government's policy of curbing investment will exert its power, and the construction of the Olympic Games is drawing to a close. The country has slowed its investment projects, so the growth rate of heavy trucks should be lower than in 2007.
One of the short-term reasons for the high-speed growth of heavy trucks in 2007 was the impact of toll-by-weight fees. Since many provinces have implemented a toll-by-weight policy, this heavy truck has a cost advantage over mid-to-long-haul freight and a stronger alternative to China Card. . On the other hand, the country announced early on that it will implement the National III emission standards from 2008, which has led many transportation companies to plan ahead for the purchase of vehicles.
In addition, in 2008, with the full implementation of the National III standard, the entire industry chain of the heavy truck industry is facing challenges, including the issue of how the engines and oil products meet the standard; the full implementation of the country III will increase the cost of the company, making the country III products face The overall increase, in fact, this has been demonstrated in the previously listed models.
Heavy truck industry analysis, the State III products make the company increase the cost of 20%, is expected to heavy truck products will rise between 2 to 60,000 yuan, up 10% to 15%, then will face how to vehicle, spare parts and consumers The problem of distribution among. For transport companies, because there are gaps in the implementation of State III products, it is not possible to synchronize the various places. In the past, the use of cards in other places will continue to be used locally. In general, the heavy-duty truck industry will face the dual pressure of overall price increase and sales growth year-on-year, which may lead to overall cooling.
Bus market is more optimistic
The passenger car market, especially large and medium-sized passenger cars, has actually maintained a relatively stable development. In the past few years, the passenger car market has not changed much under the fluctuating conditions of the passenger car and heavy truck market. This is a very strange phenomenon.
Bus industry insiders analyzed that the demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars mainly comes from road passenger transport and urban public transport. In the long run, the demand for highway passenger cars will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 9% to 10%, slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP. It is expected that the medium and large passenger cars will still maintain this growth rate.
For buses, the Olympic bus business opportunities have already passed in 2008, and the bidding has already ended. However, this market data will be counted in the company’s 2008 market performance and will also drive sales to a certain extent.
In addition, the factors favoring the passenger car market come from overseas markets.
Compared with passenger cars and trucks, the export of passenger cars has grown very rapidly in recent years. Some leading companies' products have been accepted internationally, and the enterprises themselves have made great progress in product design, technology upgrading, and luxury passenger cars.
At present, the main countries for domestic passenger car exports are some of the more developed countries in the Middle East, South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Due to the large scale of production, low labor costs, and complete supporting systems, domestic passenger cars have obvious cost advantages. These areas are still the main export destinations for passenger cars.
In addition, light buses and light trucks are less affected by the macro economy and the market will not change much. However, there is a trend that, because of the increase in MPVs in various grades and uses in the market, there may be certain substitutions for light buses.
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