As the power system reform plan is announced soon, the reform of the oil and natural gas system as the highlight of China's energy sector reform, relevant reform programs have been swiftly researched and formulated, and foreign media have even revealed that China is considering the merger of PetroChina and Sinopec, or the merger of CNOOC and Sinopec. .
However, Liao Dapeng, a spokesperson for Sinopec, publicly stated that he did not hear such news. The SASAC insiders also told reporters on February 27 that there was no news about such mergers within the system. Moreover, the SASAC believes that the possibility is zero according to common sense.
"For PetroChina and Sinopec, the possibility of horizontal mergers can only be explored unless a vertical split is achieved in the future," said Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network.
Expected to be introduced in the first half of the year
Although authoritative sources in all sectors believe that the merger of the two barrels of oil is an oolong, the structural reforms in the energy sector are in full swing. On February 27th, the reporter learned from sources that the oil and natural gas system reform program has become the focus of the first half of this year. It is currently under research and formulation, and the fastest half of the year is expected to be completed.
"Electrical reform plan will be introduced before the two sessions. The reform of the energy sector in the first half of this year will focus on electricity reform and oil reform. With the introduction of electricity reform, oil reform will be the highlight." On February 27, a person approached. Development and Reform Commission sources told reporters.
The reporter was informed earlier that on December 24 last year, the "Several Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Electric Power System" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") was approved in principle by the State Council's executive meeting. The New Electricity Reform “Opinions†were prepared by the Department of Economic System Reform of the National Development and Reform Commission and began to solicit opinions in July last year.
As early as June 13 last year, President Xi Jinping emphasized at the 6th meeting of the Central Financial Leadership Group that it is necessary to “proactively promote energy system reforms, step up efforts to formulate overall plans for the reform of the power system and the reform of the oil and gas system, and start laws and regulations in the energy sector. Change waste work." This requirement has become the strongest signal for electric reform and oil reform.
Han Xiaoping believes that the new electricity reform plan is not perfect, but its important significance is to take a big step against heavy resistance. Electric reform itself is a gradual, continuous improvement process. The oil and gas reforms were basically in a stagnant state. With the implementation of the electric reform program, the focus of the government's next reform should be oil and gas reform.
Earlier media reports also said that an insider of state-owned oil companies disclosed that the reform of the oil and natural gas system was launched in the first half of this year and would have a major impact on the existing oil and natural gas system.
Horizontal merger is unlikely
Obviously, the news that PetroChina and Sinopec may merge will come from the enthusiastic discussion of oil and gas reforms in the industry.
During the Spring Festival, foreign media reported that the Chinese government’s economic advisers are conducting feasibility studies on various possible integration options in the oil and petrochemical industry. One option is to merge PetroChina with Sinopec; another option is to consider the merger of CNOOC and Sinopec.
Affected by this news, PetroChina opened up nearly 4% on February 25. It eventually closed at 11.23 yuan, up 1.35%. Sinopec opened up nearly 5%, and finally closed at 6.09 yuan, up 3.40%.
However, on February 25, Lu Dapeng publicly responded by saying: “First, we have never heard of this matter internally. Second, our principle is that we don’t comment on rumors. Because it was sent out by foreign media, they may have their own. The source of information, we are not very clear about this."
However, after the news of the merger of the North and South vehicles was confirmed, the industry has speculated that the reform of state-owned enterprises is not a change in the direction of the wind.
"The merger of the South and the North is to avoid vicious competition in overseas markets, but there is no such issue between PetroChina and Sinopec, and the business focus of the two companies is not the same, there is no possibility of merger." A large central enterprise is high This tells reporters.
Citibank believes that the scale is not a major obstacle to the competitiveness of PetroChina and Sinopec. According to global standards, the size of the two major oil companies is already very large. In terms of market value, PetroChina ranks second in the world, and the upstream business is second only to ExxonMobil. . In addition, we believe that the merger of PetroChina and Sinopec is unlikely to increase efficiency, and that the merger will also have the goal of reforming state-owned enterprises. If combined, PetroChina and Sinopec will account for 77% of China's upstream oil and natural gas production, 79% of smelted products, and 90% of retail oil. One goal of state-owned enterprise reform is to increase private participation and increase competition. The merger of the two companies clearly has this goal.
At the same time, Citi believes that related research does not necessarily mean that action will be taken. In 2013, the government studied the feasibility of establishing a national oil pipeline company, but the proposal was denied. We believe that the government will often study ways to reorganize the industrial structure. However, this does not mean that the proposal will inevitably have actions. We think the possibility of the merger between PetroChina and Sinopec is very small.
Han Xiaoping pointed out that Sinopec has achieved significant profitability through its mixed ownership reforms, and its production efficiency has increased substantially. However, CNPC always loses money regardless of whether international oil prices rise or fall. In this way, the two companies will merge horizontally and cannot achieve 1+1>2. They may also drag on each other and go against the direction of market-oriented reform proposed by Xi Jinping. Moreover, the two companies occupy the upper and lower reaches of the domestic market, and the overseas markets are also There is no vicious competition in the development of different countries and there is no need for horizontal mergers.
"The possibility of directly merging two barrels of oil directly may be relatively small. The reform cannot be carried out in the reverse direction. The biggest possibility is to take out some of the two oil barrels and reorganize them. For example, if the government establishes a national pipeline network company, it may put two barrels of oil. The part of its pipeline network was taken out and merged.†Han Xiaoping told reporters, but the rumor that the two barrels of oil should be merged should be wind-free. Maybe the recent oil and gas reforms have been put on the agenda. This is an assumption in various official research programs.
Oil reform focuses on liberation of oil
“Petroleum liberation should be the focus of oil and gas reform,†Han Xiaoping said. CNPC holds the best resources in the oil and gas industry and employs more than 1.5 million people. However, its oil and gas production is only about the same as that of Shell, which has only about 100,000 employees. Too low.
According to information available to reporters, CNPC currently holds the major domestic oil and gas resources, of which 67% of domestic natural gas resources and 55% of petroleum resources are in its territory.
“And these are all the best resources in the country.†Han Xiaoping said that CNPC also has a large number of the best talents in the oil and gas industry, with the best quality resources and the best talents. Why is production efficiency at a minimum? This is an institutional problem. Therefore, the company liberated CNPC, and this company will release tremendous energy.
According to Han Xiaoping, the existing system of CNPC has been solidified, and future oil and gas reforms may push its reforms from the outside. However, the real reforms must be carried out from the inside. If there is no major shake-up, internal reforms will face many obstacles, but oil anti-corruption has already This iceberg has opened a big hole. The next step is how to allocate reforms. It also requires the government to punch heavily. “In addition, because CNPC’s resources are too complicated, reforms should firstly separate and rationalize its resources from vertical to form different sectors. With the successful experience of Sinopec's mixed reforms, PetroChina’s top priority is to split up an asset management company. Sinopec has thrown fat to find funds in the market."
Han Xiaoping told reporters that when Fu Chengyu was engaged in mixed reforms at Sinopec, when he got out of the gas station, the voice of internal opposition was also very strong. However, the actual situation was that the gas station was held in the hands of Sinopec and was thrown into the market. It became the Golden Phoenix, which brought a huge sum of money without cost to Sinopec, and at the same time made it alive.
For Sinopec and CNOOC, Han Xiaoping believes that the merger of the two companies may achieve complementary resources.
Since Wang Yilin succeeded Fu Chengyu as the head of CNOOC, the industry evaluated CNOOC becoming more and more “petrochemicallyâ€. In the past two years, Wang Yilin became famous for his acquisition of Canadian oil company Nexen. This $15.1 billion deal is by far the largest overseas energy purchase deal in China.
Today, Nexen and other overseas assets acquired over the past five years have become a heavy burden on CNOOC, especially when oil prices have plummeted. JP Morgan Chase said that CNOOC may need to write down more than $5 billion in Nexen's related assets.
"Now that international oil prices are lower, oil and gas reform is a good time. If you really want to integrate domestic oil companies, Sinopec and CNOOC can be Fu Chengyu to take over the helm and carry out mixed ownership reforms, and CNPC can merge with Sinochem Group," Han Xiaoping said.
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