[ China Agricultural Machinery Industry News ] In combination with previous experience, in order to ensure the interests of farmers and achieve the goal of doubling the income of farmers in the 2020 Central Document, if the price of corn falls too sharply, it is highly likely that relevant parties will further introduce relevant stimulus policies. Corn prices, so companies are not easy to over-sell corn and continue to operate low inventory, but should take the opportunity to replenish stocks.
First, the spot market
Corn market is empty
First, the spot market
　　
Northeast Producing Area: The market situation continues to drop
Recently, the corn market in the northeastern producing areas has been plunged, the pace of sales of farmers has accelerated, and the supply pressure of the market has been released. The market is obviously tilted like the price of buyers. The purchase price of deep processing enterprises has been falling, and the profit margin of traders has been compressed. Although the southern grain-use enterprises have significantly more purchases of northeast corn than last year, there is no Northeast market that is purchased by the temporary reserve. In the short term, supply pressure will continue to dominate the price cuts.
North China production area: environmental protection supervision price code to deep processing enterprises to stop production
In recent days, the smog weather, especially in North China, has been the hardest hit, and the pressure on environmental protection has escalated. A large number of environmentally-friendly enterprises in North China have stopped production. Corn deep-processing enterprises are the first to bear the brunt, and some of the most influential enterprises in some industries are also in suspension. Columns, the market generally expects that the shutdown of this enterprise will have a significant impact on corn consumption in North China at the end of the year. Under the pessimistic market environment, the fall in grain prices in North China is expected to be higher.
Southern sales area: the decline in grain prices in production areas inhibits the enthusiasm of feed enterprises for stocking
The recent decline in corn prices in the northern producing areas has not only led to the decline of the southern sales regions, but also caused the wait-and-see sentiment of the southern feed enterprises that are about to enter the year's stocking cycle to increase. In order to avoid the risk of price cuts, enterprises have delayed the stocking time. The arrival price of the district generally fell below 1,900 yuan / ton, and it is expected that there will still be room for retreat.
North and South ports: the sharp drop in food prices has caused traders’ confidence to be frustrated
Recently, the price of corn in the north and south ports has continued to fall sharply. The single-day drop of over 50 yuan per ton has caused a serious blow to the confidence of port traders in buying and selling. The northern port traders have stopped collecting, and the southern port traders have promoted the transaction to destock. Mainly, the willingness to sell is obvious.
Feed farming: pig and poultry market is weak, soybean meal welcomes back and forth
In the recent hog market, the strong market has turned weak, the poultry and egg market has become weaker, and the overall performance of aquaculture consumption has weakened. In the early stage, the strong running soybean meal market ushered in a high-level correction under the expectation of the expected increase in imported soybeans and the subsequent decline in downstream demand. It is expected that the soybean meal market will still have a weaker space in the later period.
Deep processing: the operating rate of deep processing is reduced under environmental pressure
The continuous smog weather in recent days has upgraded the already strict environmental protection supervision. Many corn deep processing enterprises have been shut down due to environmental protection supervision. The operating rate of corn deep processing has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. Although this will lead to a decline in the consumption of deep processing of corn, but at the same time support the price of deep-processed products, the price of starch in North China rebounded.
Second, the market forecast
At present, the corn market is in an empty market. The release of supply pressure at the end of the year and the relative lack of demand directly affect the decline in corn prices. Recently, due to environmental protection supervision, unqualified deep processing enterprises have been shut down a lot, which has aggravated the market's expectation of falling corn consumption. Whether the use of grain enterprises to stock up before the end of the year can inhibit the decline in food prices remains to be seen.
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