Although the industry is not particularly optimistic about the performance of the 2016 auto market, the overall increase is considered to be higher than 2015. PwC's auto analysis team Autofacts announced on December 10 that China's light vehicle production will reach 25 million units in 2016, an increase of 8.2% from 2015; light vehicle production will reach 30.9 million units in 2021, 2015 The compound annual growth rate will reach 5.0% in 2021.
In terms of sales, Autofacts data showed that actual sales in June and July fell by 0.1% and 2.9% respectively due to the sluggish macroeconomic impact. From January to September this year, China's light vehicle sales reached 14.3 million units, compared with 2014. The sales volume of 13.6 million vehicles is at a low level of 4.8%.
“Affected by many factors such as economic slowdown, the growth rate of China’s light vehicle sales from January to September 2015 dropped from 8.3% in 2014 to 4.8% in 2015, which is also the low level in the past few years.†Jin Jun, a partner in the road management consulting business, said, "Our sales analysis also shows that the market is gradually getting out of the market due to policy stimulus."
Compared with foreign brands, as of September this year, the market share of Chinese brands increased significantly by 4.7% compared with last year, followed by Japanese brands, which increased by 0.4%, while the market share of American brands, Korean brands and EU brands decreased by 0.5%. 2% and 2.6%.
Recently, the convening of the Paris Climate Change Conference and the continued smog in China have triggered concerns about energy conservation, emission reduction and fuel efficiency. Jin Jun pointed out: "After decades of high growth, the government is now paying more attention to environmental protection and green growth. Since 2014, the domestic new energy vehicle market has entered a period of rapid development, and it is expected to become new in the next 5-10 years. An important period of industrialization of energy vehicles, especially the development of electric vehicles. At present, domestic brands dominate the electric vehicle market. From January to October, domestic electric vehicle sales reached 125,000 units, an increase of 190% year-on-year. Large models are Chinese brands, accounting for 75% of total sales."
In terms of the global market, Autofacts predicts that global light vehicle production will reach 92.7 million units in 2016, an increase of 5.1% from 2015; light vehicle production will reach 108.7 million units in 2021, and the compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2021. Reached 3.6%.
The EU issued the world's most stringent carbon emission standards in 2014, placing higher demands on energy conservation and emission reduction and fuel efficiency. Although the recent mass diesel scandal continues to ferment, leading to changes in top management, it is likely to affect the powertrain strategy of the large OEM group in the future. But "different from the Chinese market, diesel engines will continue to play an important role in the EU market to meet carbon emissions targets, but there are other alternatives in the market." Rick Hanna, PwC's global automotive industry partner, said: "In the short to medium term, light and full hybrids are expected to be the most economical alternative. At the same time, plug-in hybrids are also expected to be fast in Europe. Development. By 2020, the market share of new energy vehicles will grow steadily, but diesel locomotives will still dominate the industry."
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