In 2013, the machinery industry returned to the cycle to recover

The machinery industry grew by about 15% in 2013. It will be higher than the growth rate of about 10% in 2012.

At present, the year-on-year growth rates of the major macroeconomic indicators of industrial growth, which are closely related to the machinery industry, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment, have all experienced weak recovery. The inflation level has also returned to about 2%. Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Machinery Network, believes that in 2013, the domestic economy will enter a new round of rising cycles driven by the leading sector real estate and automobiles, taking into account that in the past 10 years, the major industrial sectors such as electricity, coal, cement, and steel have all In order to achieve a larger scale expansion, the pulling force of the economical leading departments in the major industrial sectors, such as electricity, coal, cement, and steel, will weaken in the new economic cycle, and the pulling effect of the mechanical industry serving various industrial sectors will be further reduced. Weak.

Construction machinery grew by about 5%. Driven by infrastructure and real estate investment, Luo Baihui believes that the most difficult period for demand for construction machinery has passed, and that it will show a weak recovery trend in 2013, and the sales of excavators and loaders, the main products of construction machinery for the whole year, will be considered. The growth rate is about 5%. The machine tool industry is expected to lag behind the recovery of construction machinery in the second half of 2013, and heavy mining machinery is expected to face pressure in 2013 due to the overall cycle.

Power equipment focuses on industrial electrical equipment. In power supply construction in 2013, the scale of thermal power is expected to be around 50 million kilowatts, and hydropower investment will continue to rise. The problem of oversupply of wind power will not be substantially improved, and nuclear power will enter a prudent development stage after restart; in the power grid construction, most of the rural power grid investment plans will be completed. The number of intelligent terminal bids is unlikely to increase, and the number of smart substations accounts for more than half of the total. Traditional investment in power transmission and transformation has stabilized, and there is a breakthrough in UHV; industrial electrical equipment and energy-saving and emission reduction equipment are expected to recover with the economy.

Railway investment has resumed. Since August 2012, railway infrastructure investment has achieved positive growth in a single month, and has continued to recover rapidly from August to November. With the recovery of railway construction and the construction of subway projects, we expect that the railway equipment sector will continue its current growth in 2013. Resume the trend.

In 2013, our eyes will return to the cycle. In the past two years, those strong cycle mechanical equipment companies that have been squeezed by the economic cycle, such as construction machinery, machine tools, industrial electrical equipment, and energy-saving emission reduction mainly used in the industrial field. Equipment, etc., are expected to have different levels of recovery in these areas, and the best of them will also be our focus in 2013. Of course, considering that the weak recovery cannot accommodate the rapid expansion of production capacity as before, I also need to carefully identify the downstream user equipment availability, capacity expansion, and changes in the competitive landscape in these areas.