Prospects for the Pharmaceutical Industry Market in 2009: Decrease in Injection Product Consumption

When the financial tsunami exposed its awkward faces, risks and crises also permeated every corner. Panic spread like a plague. The aftermath of the tsunami has not yet arrived, but it has already reached the end of 2008. In this extraordinary year, even the defensive and defensive star plate medicine's relative valuation has also dropped significantly.

Shenyin Wanguo has predicted the trend of China's pharmaceutical industry in the next three years in its latest investment strategy for the pharmaceutical industry in the next three years: the function of community health service institutions has been upgraded, the basic drug system has been gradually improved, and pharmaceutical commercial insurance has entered the development period. The use of infusion products is gradually decreasing, and oral medications are encouraged.

Investors who are baptized by the financial tsunami will undoubtedly be more cautious. In 2009, the medical sector was "difficult" and "changed". What are the investment opportunities for the pharmaceutical sector with a reasonably-priced valuation in the short-term? Which companies are the most growth? To this end, starting from this issue, this edition will cover a series of reports on the 2009 pharmaceutical investment outlook, so stay tuned.

In 2008, the stocks of pharmaceuticals and commerce were still resilience. What will happen to the 2009 market?

Shenyin Wanguo's 2009 strategy report pointed out that there is little room for absolute income in the coming year and the entire medical sector will be difficult to produce in 2009.

Zhang Mingfang, a pharmaceutical analyst at China Merchants Securities, pointed out that the pharmaceutical circulation industry will certainly have plate prices next year, but it will be determined after the medical reform package program comes out.

Judging from the recent trend, in the face of uncertain opportunities in medicine, under the new policy of cutting interest rates in the history of the central bank, the stocks of pharmaceutical and commercial stocks are evident to investors.

The valuation has returned to the safe range?

The K-line of the Great Wisdom Week shows that since this year (as of December 8th), Nanjing Pharmaceutical, Huadong Medicine, Shanghai Pharmaceutical, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical, Zhejiang Zhenyuan and Tongjunge have all reached new lows in the first trading week in November. Jun Court's closing price of 3.38 yuan on November 4 compared with its highest level of 15.96 yuan this year, shrinking more than 43%. On November 10, the stocks mentioned above all appeared one after another and began to rebound. Taking Nanjing Pharmaceutical as an example, it closed at 6.88 yuan on December 8, a new low of 3.94 yuan over the past year, and the stock price has rebounded by nearly 75%.

"Compared to the 200-times or even 250-times static PE of some stocks in 2001, the static PE that is currently 38 times as much as the pharmaceutical circulation industry as a whole has already reached a low level," said an analyst at Shanghai No. 1 Securities Company.

According to WIND statistics, on December 9th, with the exception of Zhejiang Zhenyuan’s static PE at 90 times and Shanghai Pharmaceutical and Sinopharm Co., Ltd. at 50 times, most of the other pharmaceutical and commercial stocks are already between 20 and 40 times. Huadong Medicine's static PE is only 23.6 times.

During the interview, many analysts told reporters that according to the data of the first three quarterly reports, the pharmaceutical circulation industry performed steadily, and the valuations of some stocks were already in the safe range, and they could appropriately pay attention to the regional pharmaceutical commercial oligopoly stocks.

Shen Yin Wanguo analyst Luo Yu even pointed out in the report that starting from January 1, next year, the market will look at the valuation in 2009, the recent stagflation and the relative valuation in 2009 will fall significantly, possibly for pharmaceutical stocks in 2008. 12 The end of the month and the beginning of January 2009 brought up opportunities.

Medical reform is a gateway

Li Yingpeng, pharmaceutical analyst of Galaxy Securities, said in an interview with reporters that if the individual stocks in the pharmaceutical circulation industry are stable and cost control is good, they are expected to continue to maintain a good performance in 2009. In addition, the new medical reform policy will also support the development of listed companies in the large pharmaceutical distribution industry. ”
"If the basic drug system is implemented next year, the gross profit margin of commercial logistics companies may be affected by some, but after the new medical reform pushes forward, the entire drug market will expand in capacity. All drugs will be distributed through commerce, so the commercial capacity will also be corresponding. In fact, the problem of unified distribution after centralized procurement of essential medicines is, for the government, the use of existing commercial companies is a good choice, so large-scale pharmaceutical and commercial companies everywhere will obviously benefit from this. In addition, the basic drugs are aimed at In the low-end market, there will be no major changes in the share of large-scale pharmaceutical and commercial companies in the high-end drug market of major hospitals. It is expected that the growth rate of pharmaceutical business concentration will exceed that of industry in the next year, said Li Yingpeng.

Some analysts pointed out that through mergers and acquisitions and reorganization of the pharmaceutical circulation industry in 2008, it is not difficult to see that some domestic pharmaceutical and commercial listed companies have already “washed out” for medical reform.

In 2008, the largest joint-venture case in the domestic pharmaceutical business was announced. Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals under Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals has been officially approved as a Sino-foreign joint venture, and local oligarchic medical oligarchs have frequently shot and staged "enclosures." At the end of last month, Nanjing Pharmaceutical and Xinjiang Corps of Medicine reached a strategic alliance and planned to open up a new round of market development in Xinjiang.

The Chinese medicine that had been focusing on medical foreign trade business earlier this year announced in July that it intends to transfer the entire shareholding of Beijing Huali Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which is held by Holley Pharmaceuticals and Holley Investments in cash, in the hope of hosting the company. The business expanded to the pharmaceutical business.

A report from Shenyin Wanguo even pointed out that in 2015, the market concentration of China's pharmaceutical circulation industry will reach 60% to 70% in the first three to five markets, and the market share of Sinopharm will reach 30% to 40%.

Reduce interest rates to benefit

Saying that the world has never had a free lunch, but for many medical and commercial circulation companies, in 2009, they will more or less "eat" to a little.

After analyzing the stocks whose main business is commercial circulation in all pharmaceutical sectors, Wang Yi, an analyst of Industrial Securities Pharmaceuticals, told reporters that although the pharmaceutical industry has always been a light asset industry and the overall liabilities are light, the central bank has decided to make a The benchmark interest rate for renminbi deposits and the deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions are lowered. For pharmaceutical distribution companies with large capital requirements, such drastic interest rate cuts will generally help enterprises, but the benefits will be limited.

According to Wang’s calculations, Nanjing Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceutical will become the two largest pharmaceutical and commercial stocks that benefit most from this round of interest rate cuts. Based on the three quarterly reports this year, Nanjing Medical will reduce the interest on loans by RMB 13.4153 million due to interest rate cuts, while the reduced interest on deposits will be only RMB 3.4504 million. The reduction in Shanghai Pharmaceutical's interest rate cuts will exceed RMB 10 million. Nanjing Pharmaceuticals and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals are expected to thicken their 2009 EPSs by 0.03 yuan and 0.02 yuan respectively.

However, some analysts pointed out that the listed company's stock price ultimately needs performance support, so investors should choose stocks from a strategic height: “The company’s focus is on which company will be the target of the new healthcare reform support and how much it will take. In addition, some cities Level 1 pharmaceutical commercial listed companies, due to the lack of space for development of distribution business, difficulty in competing with provincial companies in province-based tenders, and difficulty in expanding scale economies, will see further development in next year's development. Uncertainty."

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