In the first decade of the 21st century, China’s rapid economic growth and large-scale investment plans brought about an upsurge in infrastructure, driving the soaring production of heavy trucks and continuing to exceed industry expectations: from 30,000 to 1 million vehicles. Where is the limit?
On October 28, 2010, Li Dakai, chairman of the China Gear Association and chairman of Shaanxi Fast Automotive Transmission Group made a prediction for the future. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, there will be further growth in the heavy-duty truck market in China, but it is difficult to maintain the growth rate in the past. It is expected that the growth rate will be around 15% next year, and the entire market will peak at around 1.5 million vehicles.
Lida Kai's Fast Transmission is the most important upstream supplier in China's heavy truck industry. Of the 100 heavy trucks, 85 are equipped with Fast products. From 2001 to 2010, Fast management headed by Li Dakai almost accurately predicted every change in the industry.
Last year, China produced and sold 630,000 heavy trucks. According to current orders in 2010, it is estimated that heavy truck production will increase by more than 50% in nearly 1 million vehicles in 2010. In 2009, few people could predict that the domestic market will be so hot in 2010.
In Fast’s view, the rapid growth of the heavy-duty truck industry has benefited from the government’s huge investment-raising plan. “The 4 trillion yuan plan for 2008, the new bank loans for 10 trillion yuan in 2009, and 7 trillion yuan in 2010, The major projects such as highways, railways, airports, and mines have all generated huge demand for the market and have driven the rapid increase in the production of commercial vehicles.
However, in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, this rate may be unsustainable. Based on the projected GDP growth of 9.5% in 2011, the heavy-duty truck market is still likely to grow by 10-15%, while the urbanization process in rural areas and townships will intensify and will all make the industry Maintain a certain growth rate.
However, due to the large amount of holdings, about 1.5 million vehicles will be a peak during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. .
It is understood that global commercial vehicle production fell by 29% last year, while China's commercial vehicle market has grown by more than 22% over the same period. Among commercial vehicles in China, heavy trucks are the fastest growing market segment. At present, China has accounted for nearly half of the world's total commercial vehicle production and ranks as the world's largest commercial vehicle market.
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