The output of "natural oil fields" is expected to double after 10 years

Iraq's Ministry of Petroleum announced on January 24 that, with a significant improvement in the security situation, oil exports in 2007 rose by 9.2% to nearly 600 million barrels—equivalent to an average of about 1.9 million barrels per day. While this remains below the pre-2003 level of 2.5 million barrels per day, overall production is now close to pre-war levels. Iranian Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani expressed optimism at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, stating that Iraq’s oil output could reach between 6 and 8 million barrels per day within the next 10 to 12 years. He emphasized that most of the increase would come from newly discovered "green fields" that have yet to be developed. Analysts view Shahristani’s prediction as ambitious but not entirely unrealistic. Iraq holds approximately 115 billion proven oil barrels, ranking third globally after Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, its vast unexplored territory and potential for additional discoveries make it a prime target for global energy companies. Only 30% of Iraq’s land has been explored, and many experts believe actual reserves could be double the current estimates. Additionally, the country is believed to hold substantial natural gas resources, though their exact quantities remain unknown. Iraq currently has at least five "super fields," each with reserves exceeding 5 billion barrels. These include Kirkuk, Majnoon, North and South Rumaila, and Gurna, among others. There are also 22 major fields with reserves over 1 billion barrels. Such potential has attracted interest from both major and smaller oil firms, including Russian companies. “All the big players and even some smaller ones are very interested in Iraqi oil,” Shahristani said, noting the strong desire to explore and develop these resources. Another key factor drawing international attention is the low cost of oil extraction in Iraq. Without considering security expenses, the cost per barrel is estimated between $1 and $2, making it highly attractive compared to current market prices exceeding $100 per barrel. The U.S. and British influence following the fall of Saddam Hussein has also made entry into the Iraqi market more feasible for foreign firms. The Iraqi government has drafted an oil law aimed at opening up the country’s resources to foreign investment. Though the bill faces political challenges in parliament, oil giants remain optimistic about its eventual passage. This legislation would provide legal backing for exploration and development, offering long-term stability for investors. Moreover, international oil companies may report Iraqi reserves in their financial statements, which is particularly appealing given the declining reserves in countries like Russia and Venezuela. Iraq’s strategic location, situated between the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and facing the Persian Gulf, further enhances its value. Its proximity to major markets in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. reduces transportation and pipeline costs, making it an efficient export hub. The importance of Iraq’s oil lies in its potential to ease global supply pressures. Since 2002, rising demand and limited investment in exploration have led to higher oil prices. OPEC, despite holding most of the world’s reserves, has struggled to meet growing needs. With production limits in place, any disruption in supply can cause volatility. Iraq’s stable output could help stabilize prices and reduce uncertainty. The International Energy Agency forecasts global oil demand to rise from 85 million to 116 million barrels per day by 2030. Yet, OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, have shown limited willingness to expand production. As supply struggles to keep up with demand, Iraq’s role becomes increasingly critical. Even if full production takes time, the international market is already looking toward Iraq’s vast energy potential. Iraq has endured decades of conflict and remains a focal point for various interests. As the last major untapped oil frontier in the Middle East, its future developments will continue to draw global attention.

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