“It is said that the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2018 will be retreat in advance. Is this true?†Recently, the reporter encountered many people who inquired about the rumor, especially the power battery companies. In order to promote new energy vehicles, China has implemented a corresponding subsidy policy. And many people in the industry believe that if subsidies fall ahead, the power battery industry will suffer the pressure of two squeeze. What the hell is this all about?
Transfer of subsidies to advance slope plans announced this month
In 2015, the four ministries and commissions of the State issued the “Circular on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles 2016-2020â€. The subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will decrease by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2016-20 will be based on the 2016 basis. On the decline of 40%. The "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehicles" promulgated in 2016 specifies the central and local subsidy standards and caps for various types of vehicles from 2019 to 2020.
In 2018, it was supposed to be a calm year. Why did the sudden rumor that the subsidy would fall ahead of schedule? An industry source who declined to be named told reporters that some power battery companies have made rapid technological progress and their costs have fallen drastically. The Ministry of Finance believes that if the current subsidy standards continue to be implemented, there may be cases where the subsidy amount exceeds the cost of the battery, and it cannot be reflected. Support the principle of subsidy for strong support and support. Therefore, the early retreat of subsidies can both correct and reduce financial pressure.
Different versions of the subsidy early retreat program have appeared on the Internet. The initial version shows that: 150 kilometers of new energy vehicles with driving mileage no longer enjoy subsidies; subsidies for new energy vehicles with 150~200 kilometers of driving range are reduced by 44%. The subsidy for driving 300 km of driving range increased by 2% and 14% (300-350 km and over 350 km respectively); the subsidy standard was adjusted from third gear in 2017 to fifth gear (divided by driving mileage).
The latest circulated programs include a subsidy of RMB 10,000 for a range of 150 to 200 kilometers, a subsidy of RMB 25,000 for 200 to 250 kilometers, a subsidy of RMB 34,000 for 250 to 300 kilometers, a subsidy of RMB 45,000 for 300 to 400 kilometers, and 400 kilometers. The above subsidy of 50,000 yuan. The energy density of the power battery is not less than 105Wh/kg, the subsidy coefficient of 105-120Wh/kg is 0.5, the subsidy coefficient of 120-140Wh/kg is 1, and the subsidy coefficient of more than 140Wh/kg is 1.1. The network subsidy scheme also requires that the level of electricity consumption per 100 kilometers be increased by 10% compared with the current standard, and the upper limit of the unit battery subsidy for a pure electric passenger car is 1,100 yuan/kWh. The battery energy density of special vehicles is not less than 115Wh/kg, and the subsidy amount is 850 yuan/kWh. The corresponding requirements are also put forward for the power consumption and subsidy coefficients of special vehicles.
A car company official told reporters that the early withdrawal of subsidies involved a very wide range of plans to adjust several times in reasonable terms, advance the slope easily allow companies to be caught off guard, may give a transitional period, but the transitional subsidies will (in 2017 At the level of discounting, specific standards are still being worked out. It is said that the plan for the early retreat of subsidies will be announced at the end of January this year and formally implemented on May 1.
Or it will have a profound impact on the industry
What impact will the subsidy fall from the advance? Wang Pan, Vice President of Sales of Shenzhen BAK Power Battery Co., Ltd. believes that many rumors have caused wait-and-see status of OEMs, which may result in low overall shipments of power batteries in the first quarter of this year. Policy adjustments may involve the secondary development of products, which will have an impact on the inventory and cash flow of power battery companies.
Subsidy falling back in advance will certainly have a profound impact on the power battery industry. Zhong Mengguang, vice president of Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., believes that it delivers a very clear signal that the pace at which enterprises fight technology and fight strength will inevitably accelerate, and companies that cannot keep up with the rhythm will be eliminated.
China's top-ranking power battery companies have invested a lot of manpower and material resources to conduct technological research and development. Only today's achievements and status can be achieved. Subsidies falling ahead of schedule will encourage these companies to further increase research and development and maintain their leading position. Judging from the early retreat of the rumors of subsidies, the policy is still tilted toward outstanding companies. For companies that rely on subsidies, the subsidy will fall back in advance and their hopes will fail, prompting them to seek breakthroughs.
The early retreat of subsidies makes the cost of new energy vehicles relatively short-boarding, and the industry competition will further intensify. Cost reduction and efficiency increase have become the only means for enterprises to increase their market competitiveness, and they are also the primary issues that power battery companies should consider. Under the background of accelerated subsidies for new energy vehicles, the industry's concentration will further increase, and backward production capacity will be eliminated.
Reducing costs and increasing efficiency still have potential to be tapped
In the context of rising raw material prices, the early departure of subsidies is also a huge test for leading technology companies. They will be under pressure from both sides.
In recent years, the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material for power batteries, has continued to rise, rising from 120,000 yuan/ton to 170,000 yuan/ton, with no signs of falling. Ternary materials require the use of a large amount of cobalt, and China lacks cobalt resources. Production companies basically rely on imports. With the shift of power batteries from lithium iron phosphate to ternary materials, cobalt prices have risen sharply. At various industry seminars, experts mentioned that the price of cobalt doubled in 2016 and will continue to rise in 2018.
Under the background of subsidy withdrawal, how much room for power battery prices can fall? Wang Pan told reporters that the main factors constraining the cost reduction are raw materials, especially cathode materials. According to reports, BAK Battery has been insisting on research and development of ternary material batteries for more than a decade, taking the 811 system path of high nickel and low cobalt, and reducing battery costs through technological advances and economies of scale, especially through optimized design and control of costs.
Zhong Mengguang believes that there are many factors that restrict the decline in the cost of power batteries, including battery design, large-scale production technology, management level, and raw material supply.
The battery cost is closely related to the design. Wattmar uses a large-capacity cell design scheme, which not only increases energy density but also reduces costs while ensuring safety. Wattmar also uses battery module standardization in its design to avoid redesigning each model, saving design time and cost, and reducing unnecessary costs by reducing the overlap of functions in the PACK system. Raising the level of automation in manufacturing can both improve product quality and reduce costs. As the machines replaced manual operations, the number of employees per production line was reduced from 230 to 25, and the artificial production cost of 1GWh PACK was reduced from 33 million yuan to 2.5 million yuan. “We have achieved high quality and high efficiency in automated production lines, improved product qualification rates, and reduced scrap rates can also significantly reduce costs,†said Zhong Mengguang.
According to reports, in recent years, Watermar has increased investment in R&D and has been actively innovating. It has promoted a gradual decline in battery costs by increasing product energy density, promoting technological progress and economies of scale, etc., and it will be implemented annually from 2015 to 2017. The cost reduction of 10% to 15%. At present, the proportion of Wattmar power batteries in the cost of new energy commercial vehicles has dropped from about 50% to 30% to 40%.
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